MODEL PREDIKSI GERAKAN TANAH DENGAN AMBANG HUJAN
Abstract
Landslide is one of the natural disasters are common in Indonesia because
the country is in the ring of fire. Landslides can be predicted by the empirical
modeling of threshold rainfall that are used as early warning system. In order to
model of threshold can be used as early warning system of landslide, it is necessary
to validate to know the accuracy level of rainfall threshold in predicting the
incidence of rainfall that triggered landslides and not a landslide. In this study,
modeling was done with model empirical (intensity – duration/ID) approach using
the 220 data of rainfall that triggered landslide with satellite-based TRMM in the
territory of Indonesia. The intensity of the antecedent rainfall and the duration of
antecedent rainfall used in modelling of rainfall threshold. Rainfall threshold is
validated with ROC analysis. This method uses seven index statistic and ROC curve
to determine the accuracy rate of the rainfall threshold. The results obtained
empirical equation I = 9.65D-0.505 with value of rainfall intensity prediction
generated increasingly low even close to zero in the interval time 1 – 30 days. The
results of the analysis of the ROC on the rainfall threshold is indicate that the model
has a pretty good accuracy rate and can be used as early warning system of
landslide even though it still has a fairly large error rate.