AN ANALYSIS OF MONEY SUPPLY IN INDONESIA: VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (VAR) APPROACH
Abstract
The role of money in the modern economy highly determines the intensity and the development of the macroeconomy. The money supply
is assumed to be as much as money demand, which reflects the economic character of a country and indicates the growth and development
of macroeconomy. In Indonesia, the money supply (M1) is related to the economic dynamics in either the monetary market or the goods
market. This research aims at analyzing factors that influence the money supply and to what extent the economic factors affect the money
supply in Indonesia. The analysis method used in this research was Vector Autoregressive (VAR) with some variables, such as money
supply (M1), interest rate, and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from the 1st quarter of 2001 until the 1st quarter of 2013. The data collection
method was in the form of data compilation from credible sources, such as Bank of Indonesia (BI), Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS), and
International Financial Statistics (IFS). To obtain adequate analysis results, several tests were taken, such as unit-root test, Granger causality
test, and optimal lag. VAR analysis formulates the correlation among independent variables, so it also sees the study of impulse response
and matrix decomposition.