ANALISIS DETERMINAN INFLASI DI INDONESIA PERIODE 2010:01-2016:06 PENDEKATAN VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (VECM)
Abstract
This research aims to analyze of growth money, kurs, BI rate, and GDP to
inflation in Indonesia. The dependent variable used is inflation with independent variable
is JUB, kurs, BI rate, and GDP. The date used in this research is a monthly for the period
2010:01-2016:06 from BI and BPS. The estimation tool used in this research is Vector
Error Correction Model (VECM) using the help of Eviews 7.2.
Estimation results show that in the short term the variable inflation itself, JUB
and BI rate give significantly effect to inflation in Indonesia. While, variable kurs and
GDP have no significantly effect to inflation. In the long term, the results of the
estimation shows that the variable kurs and GDP give significantly effect to inflation.
While, Variable JUB and BI rate have no significantly effect to inflation. Estimation
results in this search also generates important analysis, it is IRF (Impulse Response
Function) and VDC (Variance Decomposotion). The results of IRF from this research
show if JUB and kurs give positive response to inflation. While, BI Rate and PDB give
negative response to inflation.Based on the results of VDC, inflation give big contribution
to the formation of inflation itself.
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