MEMBANGUN SISTEM DETEKSI DINI KRISIS UTANG DI INDONESIA BUILDING AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM OF DEBT CRISIS IN INDONESIA
WIJAYA, REZA SEPTIA
MetadataShow full item record
This research aimed at building an early warning system of debt crisis in Indonesia from January 2004 to May 2016. The research used debt crisis index to determine crisis period as measured average from three indicators, the ratio of debt towards PDB, export-import ratio, and external spread. In the case of economy recovery, macroeconomy variables needed to be monitored. Therefore, we could judge whether the indicators were able to respon the right signal or it was only a false signal. Because of that, the research only applied leading indicator model as the basic of economy recovery that influenced debt crisis as the existed problem. The research aimed at informing the cause of debt crisis that was based on the behaviour of the observed indicators. Based on the reasearch conducted, the conclusion was: debt crisis that hit Indonesia occured in 4 episodes those were in 2005, 2007, 2008, and 2013. The arrangement components that were considered good were foreign exchange reserve and real interest rate. In order to avoid debt crisis, the government needed to do debt rescheduling, debt swap, and debt cutting. The suggestions that the government needed to pay attention to were related to the above variables: for foreign exchange reserve, the government needed to pay attention to the rate of foreign exchange reserve by increasing export and decrease the amount of debt. For real interest rate, an intensive coordination with fiscal authority became very important. Demand aspect such as demand on domestic aspects, the change in the coming foreign and domestic interest rate.