ANALISIS HARGA, KURS, PRODUKSI DAN PDB TERHADAP IMPOR BERAS DI INDONESIA PADA TAHUN 1985-2015
Abstract
Agriculture is a primary sector and has an important role for national economy. One of the products from agricultural sector is rice which as the main food for Indonesian. This study aims to discover the effect of rice price, exchange rate, rice production and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) towards the rice import. This study used secondary period data of 1985-2015 obtained from Central Bureau of Statistics / Badan Pusat Statistik (BPS). The analysus model was Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) that was used Eviews 7.2. The result of the study on VECM estimation test showed that price variable on both short and long terms had positive and significant effect on the rice import in Indonesia. The exchange rate variable did not effect the rice import in short term, but is had negative and significant effect on the rice import in short term, but is had negative and significant effect on the rice import in Indonesia in the long term. In addition, the production variable in both short and long terms had negative and significant effect on the rice import in Indonesia. Meanwhile, Gross Domestic Product variable in both short and long terms had positive but insignificant effect on the rice import in Indonesia. The result of IRF test showed that exchange rate and GDP gave positive response towards rice, while the price and production gave negative response toward import. On the other hand, based on VDC test, the import gave a great contribution towards the establishment of import itself.