| dc.contributor.author | YULIADI, IMAMUDIN | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2017-08-28T09:23:37Z | |
| dc.date.available | 2017-08-28T09:23:37Z | |
| dc.date.issued | 2016-09-15 | |
| dc.identifier.issn | Vol 14, No 6, Oktober 2016 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://repository.umy.ac.id/handle/123456789/13657 | |
| dc.description | Oil is the main component in driving the economic engine of the manufacturing
and the transportation sector. Strategic play role of oil in the economy, in national
and global scale, is impact on the stability of macroeconomic variables such as
exchange rates, interest rates, consumer price index and economic growth. The
2 Imamudin Yuliadi
dynamics of world oil prices are determined by the movement of the supply and
demand side. World oil production is produced by the countries who are members
of organizations OPEC and non-OPEC.
OPEC (Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) is an organization of
the world oil cartel that collects oil producing countries - including Indonesia – to
organize the oil production quotas for each country in order to control the world oil
price. However, world oil production was also affected by the oil production from
countries non-OPEC. At the time of rising world oil production will push world oil
prices decline and vice versa. While on the other hand permintsuatu (demand) the
world’s oil is influenced by the economic growth of industrialized countries to move
their industrial machinery as well in addition to transportation and other energy
needs. World oil demand is also influenced by climatic factors which world oil prices
tend to rise during the winter because the demand for oil to drive increased space
heating energy. There is a tendency of world oil demand over the years continued
to rise along with economic growth in industrialized countries while on the other
side reserves (stock) world oil thinned, so that at some point the community will be
faced with the reality that the world’s oil reserves will be exhausted.
Fluctuations in world oil prices in addition to economic factors also influenced
by non-economic climate, political conflict, policy changes large countries, the
change of political regime, market speculation, etc. There are two standards in
the pricing of oil, they are Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate (abbreviated
as WTI). Brent oil is the default value which based on the results of ocean
exploration; it is opened in 1970 and became the basis for the establishment of
world oil prices to around 40% of world oil since 1971. However, due to the
tendency of oil production in the North Sea, Brent Europe has decreased, the
starting year 2007 began to develop a new standard that WTI oil prices. In contrast
to Brent based on oil production in the North Sea of Europe to WTI based on the
results of US oil production in Texas, it was applied to the oil production industry
make lots of demand in industrialized countries, especially China and the US.
Indonesia, as the small state economies is highly influenced by fluctuations in
world oil prices. Indonesia as well as a member of OPEC, is also a net oil importer
to meet the needs of oil tends to rise in value. Changes in oil prices affect the
amount of foreign exchange reserves as well as its impact on other macro-economic
scale, namely the exchange rate, inflation rate, stock index and interest rates. Here
are presented data on the development of world oil prices in recent months:
Fluctuations in world oil prices are influenced by many factors, economic factors
or non-economic. The political crisis between Saudi Arabia and Iran triggers the
increasing of oil price, however the increase of world oil supplies by OPEC and
non-OPEC members could potentially decrease the oil prices and wil | en_US |
| dc.description.abstract | World oil price is a variable impacted to the world economic dynamics including
Indonesia economics as the small country. The fluctuation of oil price is influence to the
macroeconomic indicator of Indonesia economic. This research use Vector Autoregressive (VAR)
as the analysis research tools to describe analysis of several variables in this research. Economic
variable in this research are world oil pricing, interest rate, consumer price index and exchange
rate of Rupiah. Therefore, it is always interesting to be discussed and reviewed in-depth as it
serves as important information for making economic decisions and teaching economy. The
estimation method used in this research was Vector autoregressive (VAR) method. The data
were taken from credible secondary data such as International Financial Statistics (IFS), Bank
of Indonesia (BI), and Bureau of Central Statistics (BPS) from the first month of 2008 until the
tweenty two months of 2014. The analysis method was done through impulse response analysis
and matrix decomposition to find out the effect of one variable to the other variables in a certain
period of time. The data were processed using Eviews program to gain estimated parameter
model that meets the statistic criteria and economic theories. After a series of econometric tests,
estimated statistic findings were obtained to study the modeling aspect, model stability, and
autoregressive model. The research findings show that the contribution of inflation variable in
the first period is as much as 85.2%, GDP in the first period is 10.71%, world oil prices are
1.68%, currency in circulation (M1) is 2.39%, and the exchange rate is 0%. Then, in the tenth
period GDP is 6.82%, world oil prices are 17.4%, currency in circulation (M1) is 9.48%,
inflation and the exchange rate are 52.55% and 13.7% respectively. In conclusion, it is necessary
to formulate mixed policy to deal with problems that trigger inflation, so that inflation can be
effectively controlled. | en_US |
| dc.language.iso | en | en_US |
| dc.relation.ispartofseries | Serial Publication;Vol 14, No 6, Oktober 2016 | |
| dc.subject | inflation | en_US |
| dc.subject | impulse response | en_US |
| dc.subject | debt trap | en_US |
| dc.subject | economic growth | en_US |
| dc.subject | variance decomposition | en_US |
| dc.title | SHOCK OF WORLD OIL PRICE AND ITS IMPLICATION ON INDONESIAN ECONOMY WITH VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (VAR) APPROACH | en_US |
| dc.type | Article | en_US |
