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      SHOCK OF WORLD OIL PRICE AND ITS IMPLICATION ON INDONESIAN ECONOMY WITH VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (VAR) APPROACH

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      Date
      2016-09-15
      Author
      YULIADI, IMAMUDIN
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      Abstract
      World oil price is a variable impacted to the world economic dynamics including Indonesia economics as the small country. The fluctuation of oil price is influence to the macroeconomic indicator of Indonesia economic. This research use Vector Autoregressive (VAR) as the analysis research tools to describe analysis of several variables in this research. Economic variable in this research are world oil pricing, interest rate, consumer price index and exchange rate of Rupiah. Therefore, it is always interesting to be discussed and reviewed in-depth as it serves as important information for making economic decisions and teaching economy. The estimation method used in this research was Vector autoregressive (VAR) method. The data were taken from credible secondary data such as International Financial Statistics (IFS), Bank of Indonesia (BI), and Bureau of Central Statistics (BPS) from the first month of 2008 until the tweenty two months of 2014. The analysis method was done through impulse response analysis and matrix decomposition to find out the effect of one variable to the other variables in a certain period of time. The data were processed using Eviews program to gain estimated parameter model that meets the statistic criteria and economic theories. After a series of econometric tests, estimated statistic findings were obtained to study the modeling aspect, model stability, and autoregressive model. The research findings show that the contribution of inflation variable in the first period is as much as 85.2%, GDP in the first period is 10.71%, world oil prices are 1.68%, currency in circulation (M1) is 2.39%, and the exchange rate is 0%. Then, in the tenth period GDP is 6.82%, world oil prices are 17.4%, currency in circulation (M1) is 9.48%, inflation and the exchange rate are 52.55% and 13.7% respectively. In conclusion, it is necessary to formulate mixed policy to deal with problems that trigger inflation, so that inflation can be effectively controlled.
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      http://repository.umy.ac.id/handle/123456789/13657
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