SHOCK OF WORLD OIL PRICE AND ITS IMPLICATION ON INDONESIAN ECONOMY WITH VECTOR AUTOREGRESSIVE (VAR) APPROACH
Abstract
World oil price is a variable impacted to the world economic dynamics including
Indonesia economics as the small country. The fluctuation of oil price is influence to the
macroeconomic indicator of Indonesia economic. This research use Vector Autoregressive (VAR)
as the analysis research tools to describe analysis of several variables in this research. Economic
variable in this research are world oil pricing, interest rate, consumer price index and exchange
rate of Rupiah. Therefore, it is always interesting to be discussed and reviewed in-depth as it
serves as important information for making economic decisions and teaching economy. The
estimation method used in this research was Vector autoregressive (VAR) method. The data
were taken from credible secondary data such as International Financial Statistics (IFS), Bank
of Indonesia (BI), and Bureau of Central Statistics (BPS) from the first month of 2008 until the
tweenty two months of 2014. The analysis method was done through impulse response analysis
and matrix decomposition to find out the effect of one variable to the other variables in a certain
period of time. The data were processed using Eviews program to gain estimated parameter
model that meets the statistic criteria and economic theories. After a series of econometric tests,
estimated statistic findings were obtained to study the modeling aspect, model stability, and
autoregressive model. The research findings show that the contribution of inflation variable in
the first period is as much as 85.2%, GDP in the first period is 10.71%, world oil prices are
1.68%, currency in circulation (M1) is 2.39%, and the exchange rate is 0%. Then, in the tenth
period GDP is 6.82%, world oil prices are 17.4%, currency in circulation (M1) is 9.48%,
inflation and the exchange rate are 52.55% and 13.7% respectively. In conclusion, it is necessary
to formulate mixed policy to deal with problems that trigger inflation, so that inflation can be
effectively controlled.