PRAKIRAAN KONSUMSI ENERGI LISTRIK JANGKA PANJANG di PROVINSI D.I. YOGYAKARTA MENGGUNAKAN LOGIKA FUZZY
Abstract
Electrical energy is a basic need in human life, electrical energy is widely used in various sectors, both industrial sector, household, commercial, public and service sectors etc. To keep harmony is achieved between the electric energy generated by the electrical energy consumed by electric customers in the province of Yogyakarta special region, then it takes a careful planning. A planning requires a data reference as a benchmark decision making, for that in planning the need for electrical energy needed an electric energy consumption forecasts. In this research, to provide electrical energy in the province of Yogyakarta special region made a forecast electrical energy. The methods used in forecasting consumption of electrical energy using the method of FIS (Fuzzy Inference System). Forecasts are performed are long-term, up to the year 2022. The input data used in this study by using actual historical data from the years 2013-2017, to foresee the needs of electrical energy from the years 2018-2022. From the results of the electric energy consumption forecasts long-term use FIS (Fuzzy Inference System) generates output in the form of electrical energy consumption forecast in the year 2018 of 3,100 GWh, this value is not much different from the forecast conducted by PT. PLN (Persero) using the simple method-E i.e. of 3,106.5 GWh. The value of the error (error) among the highest forecasts using FIS (Fuzzy Inference System) with forecasts of PT PLN (Persero) is 2.085% and the lowest was 0.097% error. With an average error of 0.738%.