DETERMINAN IMPOR INDONESIA TERHADAP EMPAT NEGARA ASEAN TERPILIH: PENDEKATAN MODEL GRAVITASI
LAZUARDI, MOHAMMAD CALVIN
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Indonesia's total imports from ASEAN countries Four are quite interesting phenomena to study. Judging from the UN Comtrade source regarding the total number of Indonesian imports from ASEAN Four countries (Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore and Vietnam) from 2006 to 2017 it reached 453 billion USD. In this study, the author uses the gravity model as a tool to see how the relationship between distance, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country of origin, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the destination country and the population of the destination country to see whether it affects Indonesia's total imports. The data used in this study covers 4 countries of origin of Indonesian imports from the range of 2006-2017. The analysis tool used is the Possion Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood Estimator (PPML) panel data analysis. Also using Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) to maximize functions, this technique is very widely used in estimating a data distribution parameter and remains dominantly used in the development of new tests. Distance, country of origin GDP, destination country GDP, and destination country population affect Indonesia's total imports. As the results found, the variables of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of the country of origin and destination countries both have a positive effect on Indonesia's total imports, but on the contrary the variable distance and population of destination countries have a negative effect on Indonesia's total imports. Therefore, the authors conclude that the gravity model is very relevant applied to the case study of total Indonesian imports.