ANALISIS FAKTOR-FAKTOR YANG MEMPENGARUHI EKSPOR KAKAO INDONESIA TAHUN 1985-2018 DENGAN PENDEKATAN ERROR CORRECTION MODEL (ECM)
Abstract
This study aims to determine the factors that affect Indonesian cocoa exports in the short and long term. The dependent variable in this study is Indonesian cocoa exports, while the independent variable is the amount of Indonesian cocoa production, international GDP, world cocoa prices, world coffee prices, and the exchange rate. The data used is time series data in the period 1985-2018. This study uses an error correction model (ECM). From the analysis conducted it is known that stationary data at the 1st Difference and cointegration test show significant at the level. In the short term the variable amount of Indonesian cocoa production, world cocoa prices, and world coffee prices have a positive and significant effect on Indonesian cocoa exports. The international GDP variable has a positive and not significant effect on Indonesian cocoa exports. The exchange rate variable has a negative and not significant effect on Indonesian cocoa exports. Whereas in the long run the variable amount of production, international GDP, world cocoa prices, world coffee prices have a positive and significant effect on Indonesian cocoa exports. The exchange rate variable has a negative and not significant effect on Indonesian cocoa exports.