Abstract This study aims to determine: Effect of profitability, liquidity, leverage, and firm size on dividend policy. The samples were a total of 27 manufactures companies listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange from 2012-2016. The sampling technique used purposive sampling. Methods of data collection using the documentation. Analysis of the data by using descriptive, classic assumption test and regression. The results from this research are profitability, leverage, and firm size have a positive and significant influence to dividend distribution probability. While liquidity does not have significant influence to the dividend distribution probability.