BUSINESS CYCLE AND PRIVATE SECTOR DEBT
HARJOWIRYONO, MARWANTO, DKK
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The World Bank started the discussion with a presentation on the business cycle and private sector debt's characteristics in the region, especially concerning the recent condition and the future aspects of the private sector debt. In general, the recent condition of orivate sector debt is better compared to the situation prior to the financial crisis in 1997. The level of domestic private sector external debt is relatively low and there is no sign of credit runs up. The banking and sorporate sectors show an improvement in their performance compared to their performance before and around the financial crisis period . However, there are also several risks that should be addresed properly, such as high level of total private sector debt and NPLs, a challenge from a rapid household credit growth , and the monitoring and regulatory framework of banking system. Australia shared its experiences and view on the household debt issues. The domestic consumption has climbed up, in some point even faster than the increase of income. At the same time , the houshold debt also rises. Yet, it seems that the raio of debt to wealth remains, which might indicated that a significant part of income raise still put into saving or any other assets In general, Austalia experiences a climb up of household debt in the recent years. The phenomenon may create risks where the household sector becomes more vulnerable to shocks, such as the interest rates rise. .