ANALISIS DAN PERAMALAN DAYA DUKUNG LAHAN PERTANIAN TANAMAN PANGAN DI KABUPATEN KLATEN
PURBONINGRUM, LESTARI HENY
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Klaten Regency is one of the regencies in Central Java which is considered as a rice barn in Central Java Province. Klaten Regency is famous for producing rice varieties "Raja Lele". The population in Klaten Regency is increasing every year. Increasing people makes land needs increase. This study aims to determine the amount of land carrying capacity in Klaten Regency in 2010-2017, knowing the number of optimum inhabitants in Klaten Regency in 2017 and knowing the trend of land carrying capacity in Klaten District in 2018- 2022. The data used in this study were from the Central Bureau of Statistics and the Department of Agriculture in Klaten Regency in 2010-2017. The data obtained were analyzed descriptively. The land carrying capacity in Klaten Regency in 2010-2017 is mostly included in class II. This means that most of the subdistricts in Klaten Regency are capable of self-sufficiency in food but have not been able to provide a decent life for their residents. Some sub-districts in Klaten Regency are in class III and only a few small sub-districts are included in class I. The factors that most influence prices are rice production and population. six of the 26 sub-districts in the Klaten Regency have a population exceeding the optimum population in the area. Forecasting is done by quadratic trend method, because this method has the smallest RMSE value. Forecasting results show there are only five sub-districts that have an upward trend. Various efforts are needed to maintain and increase the value of land carrying capacity in Klaten Regency.