ANALYSIS OF COMPETITIVENESS ASEAN RICE TRADE IN THE ERA OF ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
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Rice is an important commodity, because rice is the staple food and also a source of income for most people in the ASEAN region. This study aims to determine the import dependency and sufficiency of ASEAN rice potential, and to analysis the trend of export value and competitiveness of ASEAN rice trade, and the presentation before and after the implementation of ASEAN Economic Community (AEC).In this study used secondary data such as time series of data from the years 1996-2014. Then the data is forecasted for the year 2015-2020 with an exponential smoothing method. This data is divided into two periods: AEC before period (1996-2015) and AEC period (2016-2017). Although the AEC period starting in 2015, but the effect from the implementation of free trade AEC has a time lag. To determine the import dependency, sufficiency and competitiveness in the rice trade, then used IDR (Import Dependency Ratio), SSR (Self Sufficiency Ratio), RCA (Revealed Comparative Advantage), and AR (Acceleration Ratio). To determine AR in the rice trade, the use of trend analysis with multiple regression, least square method. The results of this study indicate that ASEAN rice production potential was able to exceed the sufficiency and net export, the import dependency is very low. The ASEAN rice has become a production base in the region of Southeast Asia and has the comparative advantages. In the period AEC predicted that the situation would be improved, due to an increase in production, the sufficiency and net export, the import dependency decrease. Nevertheless, ASEAN rice trade performance at the world level is estimated to be weakened. Only Thailand and Vietnam in the ASEAN region, which has highly competitiveness on the level of world rice trade.