PREDIKSI KEBANGKRUTAN PADA PERUSAHAAN SEKTOR PROPERTI DAN REAL ESTATE DI INDONESIA
Abstract
ABSTRACT
This research aims to analyze bankruptcy prediction in property and real estate sector companies based on Altman model and Ohlson model and analyze the most dominant factors affecting bankrupcty based on Altman model and Ohlson model. But in this study the researcher did not use both models with functions that already existed before, but researchers formed a new functions using discriminant and logistic regression analysis to predict bankruptcy. The sample of this research is all property and real estate sectors listed in Indonesia Stock Exchange 2012 to 2016. This research resulted a new function in Altman model and Ohlson model with high predictive accuracy levels of 89.4% and 83.3 %. The result of this research show that there are companies that fall into the category of financial distress based on Altman model and Ohlson model, namely PT Bukit Darmo Property Tbk (BKDP), PT Bakrieland Development Tbk (ELTY), PT Metro Realty Tbk (MTSM), PT Nirvana Development Tbk (NIRO), and PT Ristia Bintang Mahkota Sejati Tbk (RBMS). Other than that, it is also known that the most dominant factors affecting bankruptcy based on Altman model and Ohlson model, it is QR and ROE.
Keywords: bankruptcy, altman model, ohlson model, discriminant analysis, logistic regression analysis